The market reacted strongly to rumors about production resumptions and fee payments in the Wa region. During the night session, SHFE tin prices remained in a low-level sideways trend [SMM Tin Morning News]

SMM Tin Morning News on May 29, 2025:

Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2507) remained in the doldrums during the night session, with the price midpoint shifting down to around 256,000 yuan/mt, closing at 256,880 yuan/mt, down 2.05% from the previous trading day.

Macro: (1) Japan's chip equipment sales in April hit a new monthly high, up 14.9% YoY. (Bullish ★) (2) Nvidia's Q1 revenue exceeded expectations, while data center revenue slightly fell short, with shares rising 5% after hours. (Bullish ★) (3) US Fed meeting minutes: Risks of rising unemployment and inflation have increased, and the benefits of flexible average inflation targeting in a high-risk environment have diminished. (4) Tariffs - ①Investment in exchange for tariff exemptions? Three major German automakers reportedly negotiating directly with the US government. ②Trade officials from the EU and the US will hold talks on Thursday, with both sides agreeing to communicate every other day. ③Trump responds to the "TACO" deal, criticizing Wall Street for not understanding negotiations. (Neutral)

Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Overall tin ore supply in major producing regions such as Yunnan is tightening, with some smelters potentially halting production for maintenance to address raw material shortages. The market reacted strongly to rumors about production resumption and fee payments in the Wa region yesterday. According to SMM, few enterprises are currently paying fees to obtain mining licenses, with many adopting a wait-and-see attitude. Most major ore traders have not paid management fees. Additionally, inspections at the China-Myanmar border are stringent, and the entry procedures for most large machinery and related mining personnel are complex. The current pace of production resumption in the Wa region is below market expectations. (Bullish ★) (2) Demand side: Some downstream processing enterprises gradually resumed operations after the Labour Day holiday, with some demand for low-priced restocking being released, but high-priced transactions remained sluggish. (Bearish ★)

Spot Market: Spot transactions were brisk yesterday. After a sharp decline in tin prices in the afternoon, some enterprises made purchases at the 260,000 yuan/mt threshold. As prices continued to decline, the purchasing sentiment of downstream and end-user enterprises improved, with many beginning to make just-in-time procurement and small-scale restocking. Traders reported that most back-to-back pricing orders were completed by the afternoon today, with most trading enterprises achieving sales exceeding one truckload, and a few reaching over 100 mt.